The Impact of Urban Heating and Cooling on Future Energy Demand in a Changing Climate
Researchers have found that current global energy predictions are underestimating the impact of climate change on urban heating and cooling systems by 50% by the year 2099 if greenhouse gas emissions remain high. This could have a significant impact on sustainable energy planning in the future.
Previous studies have focused mainly on chemical feedback loops related to energy use, greenhouse gas emissions, and the atmosphere. However, a new study led by the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign highlights the importance of physical interactions between urban infrastructure and the atmosphere in creating local microclimates that affect global climate.
The study, led by professor Lei Zhao, emphasizes the role of waste heat from heating and cooling systems in residential and commercial buildings in shaping local climates and energy consumption. The findings were published in the journal Nature Climate Change.
Heating and cooling systems release a significant amount of heat into urban areas, making cities hotter and increasing the demand for indoor cooling, which in turn adds more heat to local climates. This positive feedback loop between building cooling-system use and urban warming could be exacerbated by rising temperatures due to climate change.
The study suggests that decreasing heating use could result in less heat being released into urban environments, leading to less urban warming compared to current climate conditions. However, this negative feedback loop may not completely offset the positive feedback loop effect.
To address these physical contributions to climate change, the researchers used a hybrid modeling framework combining dynamic Earth system modeling and machine learning to analyze global urban heating and cooling energy demand under varying urban climate conditions and uncertainties.
The key takeaway from this study is the need for energy projections that take into account both positive and negative physical feedback loops to improve climate impact assessment and inform policymaking for climate-sensitive energy planning. The research team is working on incorporating additional variables and uncertainties into their models to refine energy-demand projections.
The study was supported by the National Science Foundation and the Institute for Sustainability, Energy, and Environment at the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign.
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Michael Thompson earned his degree in Agricultural Engineering from Purdue University in the USA, specializing in precision agriculture and smart farming technologies. His work revolves around the development of automated systems that increase farm efficiency and reduce environmental impact. Michael is now a senior engineer at a leading agri-tech company, where he designs innovative solutions for modern agriculture.